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Thursday, August 16, 2007

Carry Trade Ruined by Stocks Market Chaos

EUR/USD reached its two month minimum and almost broker out of its long-term bullish trend today. World stocks markets continue to fall with the main reason lying in panic caused by the crisis in subprime lending U.S. sector. Cashing out of stocks papers causes also carry trade retreating with a huge buying back of JPY and USD (in a lesser dimension) for other currencies - thus the rally of JPY and USD. Even bad economical news from U.S. don't stop from buying it for Euro.
Weekly employment data showed a little increase of the initial jobless claims - 322k from 316k previous week, while analysts expected a small decrease.
Housing data continue to come out worse and worse - housing starts came out to be 1381,000, while building permits - at 1373k, which is approximately 25k lesser than the market was expecting.

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Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Dollars Benefits from Excessive Euro Liquidity

EUR/USD hit its new significant bottom near 1.3455 level after dollar continued to grow on the high Euro liquidity level and good economical releases from U.S. Next technical support for EUR/USD lies near 1.3330 mark, so it is reasonable to expect some more USD rallying by the end of this week or next week.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, released by Bureau of Labor Statistics, showed 0.1% growth in July (as expected) compared to 0.2% growth in June.
Industrial Production report didn't make any surprises too and came out with a 0.3% growth in July (in June it grew by 0.5%).
Net Foreign Purchases in July fell by $5.2B compared with June number and came out at $120.9B level, which is still historically high.

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Tuesday, August 14, 2007

PPI and Trade Balance Make EUR/USD Drop Farther

EUR/USD dropped to its new mid-term minimum (since 07/02/2007) at 1.3560, continuing its fall after the major currency intervention by European Central Bank, which took place yesterday to prevent a possible low liquidity on the financial markets of the European Union. Some good macroeconomic news released in U.S. added some fuel to dollar rally.
Producer Price Index came out at 0.6% increase compared to 0.1% consensus value and -0.2% previous value. Core component of PPI was worse but not dramatically - 0.1% of growth compared to 0.2% in forecast.
U.S. Trade Balance report showed some psychologically positive numbers. Unfortunately for the U.S. they are still mathematically negative, but nevertheless trade balance deficit continue to decrease. In June it was -$58.1 billions ($2.9B better than expected and $1.1B better than previous month).

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Monday, August 13, 2007

EUR/USD Hits Monthly Low After ECB Intervention

EUR/USD hit new monthly minimum at 1.3606 today, bouncing back from both the psychological support of 1.3600 and technical support level around 1.3605. One of the main reason for the vigorous dollar behavior can be seen in ECB today's currency intervention of more than 130 billions. Such a harsh step was needed to prevent a highly possible financial market collapse.
Economical statistics which came this day from the Unites States of America strengthened USD even further. Advance retail sales came out at 0.3% growth compared to 0.2% expected and retail sales excluding autos came out at 0.4% compared to 0.3% expected. Manufacturers' and trade inventories, seasonly adjusted, are estimated at 0.4% growth compared to May 2007 (at the expected level).

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